Thursday, May 24, 2007

CaribJournal » Global Warming: Rising Global Temperatures Could Lead to More Diseases, Scientists say

CaribJournal » Global Warming: Rising Global Temperatures Could Lead to More Diseases, Scientists say

global-warming-rising-global-temperatures-could-lead-to-more-diseases-scientists-say.jpg As the Earth's temperatures continue to rise, we can expect a signficant change in infectious disease patterns around the globe. Just exactly what those changes will be remains unclear, but scientists agree they will not be for the good.

"Environmental changes have always been associated with the appearance of new diseases or the arrival of old diseases in new places. With more changes, we can expect more surprises," says Stephen Morse of Columbia University, speaking on May 22, 2007, at the 107th General Meeting of the American Society for Microbiology in Toronto.

In its April 2007 report on the impacts of climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that rising temperatures may result in "the altered spatial distribution of some infectious disease vectors," and will have "mixed effects, such as the decrease or increase of the range and transmission potential of malaria in Africa."

"Diseases carried by insects and ticks are likely to be affected by environmental changes because these creatures are themselves very sensitive to vegetation type, temperature, humidity etc. However, the direction of change – whether the diseases will increase or decrease – is much more difficult to predict, because disease transmission involves many factors, some of which will increase and some decrease with environmental change. A combination of historical disease records and present-day ground-based surveillance, remotely sensed (satellite) and other data, and good predictive models is needed to describe the past, explain the present and predict the future of vector-borne infectious diseases," says David Rogers of Oxford University, also speaking at the meeting.

One impact of rising global temperatures, though, can be fairly accurately predicted, says Morse. In the mountains of endemic areas, malaria is not transmitted above a certain altitude because temperatures are too cold to support mosquitoes. As temperatures rise, this malaria line will rise as well.

"One of the first indicators of rising global temperatures could be malaria climbing mountains," says Morse.

Another change could be the flu season. Influenza is a year-round event in the tropics. If the tropical airmass around the Earth's equator expands, as new areas lose their seasons they may also begin to see influenza year-round.

And extreme weather events will also lead to more disease, unless we are prepared. As the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather events change, water supplies become more at risk, according Joan Rose of Michigan State University.

"Hurricanes, typhoons, tornados and just high intensity storms have exacerbated an aging drinking and wastewater infrastructure, enhanced the mixing of untreated sewage and water supplies, re-suspended pathogens from sediments and displaced large populations to temporary shelters. We are at greater risk than ever before of infectious disease associated with increasing extreme weather events," says Rose.

There will also be indirect effects of climate change on infectious disease as well. For instance, says Morse, the effect of global warming on agriculture could lead to significant changes in disease transmission and distribution.

"If agriculture in a particular area begins to fail due drought, more people will move into cities," says Morse. High population densities, especially in developing countries, are associated with an increased transmission of a variety of diseases including HIV, tuberculosis, respiratory diseases (such as influenza) and sexually transmitted diseases.

"I'm worried about climate change and agree that something needs to be done," says Morse. "Otherwise, we can hope our luck will hold out."

Whales In Hot Water: Global Warming's Effect On World's Largest Creatures

ScienceDaily: Whales In Hot Water: Global Warming's Effect On World's Largest Creatures

Whales, dolphins and porpoises (cetaceans) are facing increasing threats from climate change, according to a new report published by WWF and the Whale and Dolphin Conservation Society.


Beluga whales rely on polar, icy waters for their habitat and food resources. (Credit: WWF-Canon / Kevin Schafer)

The report "Whales in hot water?" examines the impacts on cetaceans including:

  • Changes in sea temperature
  • Declining salinity because of the melting of ice and increased rainfall
  • Sea level rise
  • Loss of icy polar habitats
  • Decline of krill populations in key areas. Krill is a tiny shrimp-like marine animal that is dependent on sea ice and is the main source of food for many of the great whales.

"Whales, dolphins and porpoises have some capacity to adapt to their changing environment," said Mark Simmonds, International Director of Science at WCDS. "But the climate is now changing at such a fast pace that it is unclear to what extent whales and dolphins will be able to adjust, and we believe many populations to be very vulnerable to predicted changes."

Climate change impacts are currently greatest in the Arctic and the Antarctic. According to the report, cetaceans that rely on polar, icy waters for their habitat and food resources – such as belugas, narwhal, and bowhead whales – are likely to be dramatically affected by the reduction of sea ice cover.

As sea ice cover decreases there will be more human activities such as commercial shipping, oil, gas and mining exploration and development, and military activities in previously untouched areas of the Arctic.

"This will result in much greater risks from oil and chemical spills, worse acoustic disturbance and more collisions between whales and ships," said the lead author of the report, Wendy Elliott, from WWF's Global Species Program.

Other projected impacts of climate change listed in the report include: reduction of available habitat for several cetacean species unable to move into colder waters (e.g. river dolphins), the acidification of the oceans as they absorb growing quantities of CO 2, an increased susceptibility of cetaceans to diseases, and reduced reproductive success, body condition and survival rates.

Climate change could also be the nail in the coffin for the last 300 or so endangered North Atlantic right whales, as the survival of their calves has been directly related to the effects of climate variability on prey abundance.

WCDS and WWF are urging governments to cut CO2 global emissions by at least 50 percent by the middle of this century. The latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change showed it was possible to stop global warming if the world's emissions start to decline before 2015.

The two conservation organizations further call on the International Whaling Commission to facilitate research on future impacts of climate change on cetaceans, including supporting a special climate change workshop in the coming year, elaborate conservation and management plans in light of the climate change threat, and increase efforts and resources to fight other threats to cetaceans.

Butterflies: Harbingers of Climate Change (TreeHugger)

Butterflies: Harbingers of Climate Change (TreeHugger)

flying_butterflies.jpg In a clear sign of the wider ramifications of climate change on some of the planet's wildlife, biologists in Britain have noted that at least 11 butterfly species made their earliest recorded appearances this year. Of the 59 resident and regular migrant species, 37 have already appeared and, besides for one species (the orange tip), have done so earlier than they would've a decade ago, according to Butterfly Conservation, a wildlife organization.

Some species have broken all records in the extent to which they have pushed forward their normal appearance dates: the Lulworth skipper, which usually makes its first appearance in the third week of June, was seen as early as April 28 while the speckled wood, which typically appears at the end of March, was observed in its Cornwall habitat on January 16, a record seven weeks ahead of schedule.

Overall, the Butterfly Conservation estimates that these butterfly species emerged more than four-and-a-half weeks earlier on average than they would've done ten years ago. The organization's officials are certain that climate change is linked to the early appearance of the majority of Britain's butterflies.

"Butterfly data, collected by hundreds of UK recorders, definitely points to climate change," Mr Warren said. "Species are not only emerging early, but several species are extending their geographic range northwards. The small skipper, the comma and the holly blue butterflies have all crossed the border into Scotland in the past few years, very probably as a result of the changing climate."

India, China, Brazil hold up climate change talks- Hindustan Times

India, China, Brazil hold up climate change talks- Hindustan Times

A demand by India, China, and Brazil that rich nations accept they are mainly responsible for global warming has held up progress at a key UN climate change conference in Bangkok, delegates said on Wednesday.

The three nations' insistence since the talks started on Monday that the developed world recognise their dominant role in climate change has stolen precious time meant for debate on how best to tackle global warming, they said.

"Progress is slow," one delegate from a European nation, who asked not to be identified said.

"Brazil, India and China are trying to put on the shoulders of industrialised nations the historic responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions, in order to clear their own emissions (of blame) and to protect themselves in any discussion."

At least 400 scientists and experts from about 120 countries are attending the week-long third session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN's leading authority on global warming.

Their report, expected to be released at the end of their meeting on Friday, aims to lay out ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prevent a climate catastrophe without seriously hurting the global economy.

But China has also insisted on specific figures, which lay the blame for global warming on rich nations, be inserted into the conclusions.

Various delegates said the demands, made by China but backed by India and Brazil, were not relevant to this week's meeting because it was meant to specifically look at ways to mitigate climate change. 

globeandmail.com: Climate change could put Canada's Arctic whales in hot water

globeandmail.com: Climate change could put Canada's Arctic whales in hot water

A new report says climate change could be putting Canada's Arctic whales in hot water.

The report, released Tuesday by the World Wildlife Fund, said global warming is likely having the same effect on whales that it's having on polar bears — changing the conditions under which they are adapted to live.

"It is unclear to what extent cetaceans will be able to adapt to the rate of climate change predicted in the near future," says the report.

"As temperatures increase, there are likely to be significant losses of polar 'specialist' species and a general shift of more temperate species towards the poles."

Previous research suggests the Arctic is warming at twice the rate of other parts of the globe. As well, the U.S. Snow and Ice Data Centre reports that sea ice already extends about 14 per cent less than it did in the '70s.

That could have serious implications for species such as beluga, a small white whale loved by the Inuit for its meat and blubber and by southern aquarium-goers for its smiley face, as well as narwhal, also hunted for food and renowned for the single long tusk growing out of its head.

Both whales are not only heavily dependent on the abundant life that blooms around the sea ice edge but also strongly tied to specific areas of it.

"Those two species are almost like robots," said Kristen Laidre, a marine biologist at the University of Washington who has just returned from a narwhal research trip to Greenland.

"They go to the same area year after year after year."

As climate change shifts everything from the extent of the ice cover to the time of spring breakup, no one knows how the whales will react.

"Would they move north with the sea ice? That's one of the big debatable questions," Ms. Laidre says.

Being at the right place at the right time is critical for all northern animals, and whales are no different.

"They're very much in rhythm with that system and exploit it," Ms. Laidre says. "If that (timing) changes, that's probably where the effects will be seen."

The report, entitled Whales In Hot Water?, also suggests that Arctic whales may face more competition for resources as warming oceans push whales north who would normally live in more temperate waters.

Dependable areas of year-round open water, called polynyas, could freeze over, trapping whales under the ice. As well, whales are likely to suffer from increased noise and chemical pollution as Arctic waters become busier shipping routes.

Belugas and bowheads have been seen to flee ships approaching within 35 kilometres.

"It is expected that the opening of the Northwest Passage will have a strong negative effect on cetaceans in the area, particularly when the synergistic effects of these human activities and the climate-change induced shifts in the ecosystem are considered," the report says.

Ms. Laidre says it's hard to predict the effects of climate change on Arctic whales because so little is known about them. Arctic research is both expensive and logistically difficult.

But Pete Ewins of the World Wildlife Fund says the Arctic whales face the same plight as that of polar bears. The sea ice that both shelters and feeds them is changing and — mostly — shrinking.

"The steps you need to take require you to not only turn down the (carbon dioxide) but also to be cautious and manage other activities," he said, noting that military, industrial and tourist activities in formerly silent Arctic waters are all increasing with the melting ice.

Species such as whales and polar bears are not only pop-culture icons, but also good indicators of the health of an ecosystem, said Mr. Ewins.

"They are flagships of the marine systems," he said.

"If you get it right for Arctic whales, then numerous other species down the food chain would benefit."

AlterNet: Environment: Carbon Emissions Exceed Highest Assumptions Used in Climate Change Studies

AlterNet: Environment: Carbon Emissions Exceed Highest Assumptions Used in Climate Change Studies

While global warming deniers argue that most climatologists are alarmists, CO2 emissions in the past few years have exceeded the levels used in scientists' models -- signaling even more cause for concern.

Global emissions of carbon dioxide are growing at a faster clip than the highest rates used in recent key UN reports.

CO2 emissions from cars, factories, and power plants grew at an annual rate of 1.1 percent during the 1990s, according to the Global Carbon Project, which is a data clearinghouse set up in 2001 as a cooperative effort among UN-related groups and other scientific organizations. But from 2000 to 2004, CO2 emissions rates almost tripled to 3 percent a year - higher than any rate used in emissions scenarios for the reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

If the higher rate represents more than a blip, stabilizing emissions by 2100 will be more difficult than the latest UN reports indicate, some analysts say. And to avoid the most serious effects of global warming, significant cuts in CO2 emissions must begin sooner than the IPCC reports suggest. At the moment, no region of the world is "decarbonizing its energy supply," the analysis says.

The Global Carbon Project's calculations should be viewed with caution, says Michael Oppenheimer, a climate-policy specialist at Princeton University in New Jersey. Economies have been recovering from a recession at the turn of the millennium. And a spike in natural-gas prices - of uncertain duration - has given coal a second wind in developed countries. These short-term factors have probably contributed to the growth in emissions rates, he says.

Yet longer-term forces may be at play to sustain the high emissions rates. For instance, "There is concern among many experts that factors such as China's continued, very rapid coal-based growth may not be a blip that would turn around," he says.

The analysis is the Global Carbon Project's first cut at an annual effort to report on trends in CO2 emissions and the factors contributing to them, says Christopher Field, a scientist with the Carnegie Institution of Washington.

"We're trying to figure out a small set of numbers that give people a clear picture" of what's happening, says Dr. Field, a member of the Global Carbon Project's science steering committee and a co-author of the analysis, which appears in Monday's edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The analysis comes at a time when negotiators for the G-8 group of leading industrial countries have been trying to work out the wording of a section on climate change, proposed for the final declaration at the group's meeting in Germany next month. Last week, US negotiators red-penciled key portions, severely weakening the statement.

The analysis also comes as countries prepare for a new round of UN-sponsored climate talks, scheduled for December in Bali. Negotiators are trying to establish a track for talks that would provide a seamless transition between the 1997 Kyoto Protocol's first reporting period, which runs from 2008 to 2012, and a new international regime to combat global warming that would follow - one in which developing countries would start taking an active role.

So far, developing countries account for only about 23 percent of emissions accumulated since the start of the Industrial Revolution. But they also account for 73 percent of the global emissions growth in 2004. This has been largely driven by China's explosive growth.

In trying to figure out how emissions-reductions burdens are apportioned, which number should dominate?

"There are very difficult discussions at the international level that must be dealt with," acknowledges Andrew Weaver, a climate scientist at the University of Victoria in British Columbia and chief editor of the Journal of Climate.

In broad terms, growing population and rising per capita economic growth have fueled the increase in emissions rates, Field explains. In addition, he says, two trends appear to be taking hold. Globally, the amount of energy used per unit of gross domestic product is leveling or increasing after years of decline. This could mean that gains in energy efficiency are slowing. It could also mean that the growth of heavy industry in developing countries is offsetting the shift to less energy-intensive activities in develped countries.

Second, the energy sources that countries are using are more carbon-intensive than in the past.

The Global Carbon Project study held two surprises for everyone involved, Field says. "The first was how big the change in emissions rates is between the 1990s and after 2000." The other: "The number on carbon intensity of the world economy is going up."

Meanwhile, scientists are noting that some of the natural "sinks" for the CO2 that humans are pumping into the atmosphere are becoming less efficient at absorbing emissions. Natural sinks – the oceans and plants on land – have been absorbing about half the emissions that humans produce. But the Southern Ocean, which serves as a moat around Antarctica, is losing its ability to take up additional CO2, reports an international team of researchers in the journal Science this week. The team attributes the change to patterns of higher winds, traceable to ozone depletion high above Antarctica, and to global warming.

"There's been a lot of discussion about whether the scenarios that climate modelers have used to characterize possible futures are biased toward the high end or the low end," Field adds. "I was surprised to see that the trajectory of emissions since 2000 now looks like it's running higher than the highest scenarios climate modelers are using."

If so, it wouldn't be the first time. Recently published research has shown that Arctic ice is disappearing faster than models have suggested.

Despite the relatively short period showing an increase in emissions growth rates, the Global Carbon Project's report "is very disturbing," Dr. Weaver says. "As a global society, we need to get down to a level of 90 percent reductions by 2050" to have a decent chance of warding off the strongest effects of global warming.

If this study is correct, "to get there we have to turn this corner much faster than it looks like we're doing," he says.

Antarctic Marine Life Challenges Scientific Thought on Biodiversity

Antarctic Marine Life Challenges Scientific Thought on Biodiversity

When most people think of the South Pole, they think of bleak and bitter cold. They think of nothingness, as far as the eye can see. Perhaps they think of penguins and killer whales, but not much other life. However, they couldn't be more wrong. Between 2002 and 2005, an international team of scientists, mostly biologists, traversed to this seemingly desolate part of the world to search for marine life. Although expecting to confirm their suspicions that little life existed, instead they found a cornucopia of aquatic animals, ranging from one-celled organisms to exotic sponges and sea urchins.

In fact, they found over 600 different species that are completely new to science, never having been seen or recorded before. But, because of their primal nature, as well as their similarity to other organisms around the world, and the biologic and geographic history of the Antarctic, the scientists' findings suggest that all life on Earth originated in the Antarctic. These findings are startling to the scientific world because most scientists assumed that patterns of biodiversity in the Antarctic would be similar to those in the Arctic, which really is bleak and desolate, lacking much life.

Besides cataloging new species, the team of experts studied how surface creatures intermingled with deep-sea creatures, taking aquatic samples from anywhere between 2,000 and 21,000 feet below surface level. Because of the nature of reproduction of certain species, some species they found are localized. In other words, because some species can't disperse well, they remain only in the Antarctic, while others are found even in the northern Arctic. Interestingly, the biologists sort of saw the direct effects of evolution. The organisms that lived near the surface had eyes, because light was filtering through the water. But those organisms towards to bottom didn't have eyes, because they didn't need them since it was completely dark in the deep waters. Another interesting find involved a single cell organism called foraminifera. The team found three distinct species of foraminifera that were almost identical to those found in the North Pole, suggesting that these little critters had trekked the entire globe!

The reason that many of the species found in the Southern Ocean look so prehistoric is because they practically are. The Antarctic has been relatively stable and isolated for the past 40 million years, due to continental shifts and the formation of oceans. Because of this, many species have been able to adapt and evolve almost completely untouched by outside forces, thus retaining many of their prehistoric qualities.

Warehouse balloons tint Great Barrier Island red

Warehouse balloons tint Great Barrier Island red

The Department of Conservation is concerned that hundreds of helium balloons released by The Warehouse to celebrate its 25th birthday have washed up on Great Barrier Island.

Apart from the visual pollution there is concern that wildlife might mistake the balloons for food.

The 13,000 balloons were released two weeks ago from Dairy Flat.

An Auckland woman visiting the island a fortnight ago was shocked to find hundreds of the balloons around the high-tide mark of Kaitoke Beach on the east coast.

DoC yesterday confirmed 10 balloons had been found at Mabey's Beach to the north.

Alison Craig said she had picked up 132 of the balloons, which resembled little quivering squid, from the beach in just half an hour.

There were hundreds more on the beach, which surprised her, given the remoteness of the beautiful and usually unblemished coastline.

Alison Turner, community relations officer for DoC on Great Barrier, said people on other Hauraki Gulf Islands would be asked to notify any sightings to determine the extent of the balloon pollution.

Tony Bouzaid, the chairman of the Great Barrier Community Board, said the balloons must have drifted over the island and possibly far out to sea before washing back in.

A spokesperson for The Warehouse was concerned that some balloons were found on Great Barrier Island but disappointed the company was not informed sooner.

"Had we known, we would have addressed the issue. We ask anyone who finds anything that may have been from the exercise to let us know so that we may work to correct the situation."

A New Kettle Of Fish

A New Kettle Of Fish

Sunlight penetrates the surface of the ocean to a depth of about 150 meters. Below that point darkness intensifies. At extreme depths, more than 10,000 meters beneath the surface, utter lightlessness, crushing pressure, and what early oceanographer William Beebe called "cosmic cold" hold sway. Inhospitable as this abyss appears, it seethes with life. Virgil called the entrance to Avernus and the underworld "the birdless place," but the ocean deeps, where photosynthesis is impossible, are plantless places. This realm of pitch-black water, towering reefs, and submarine stalagmites is illumined only fitfully by the cool flashes of luminescence generated by its inhabitants, the most bizarre life-forms on our planet. It's a realm where fantastic beauty seems indistinguishable from dread.

Now, in Claire Nouvian's "The Deep: The Extraordinary Creatures of the Abyss" ( University of Chicago, 256 pages, $45), the fanged and frilly denizens of primordial darkness are presented in their full splendor. Each squid, jellyfish, and deepsea worm is posed in all its baroque extravagance against a stark black background, occupying a full or double-page spread. The effect is startling, like a series of underwater mug shots crafted by Fabergé. Ms. Nouvian is a journalist and filmmaker who became entranced with abyssal life after a visit to the Monterey Bay Aquarium. She has enlisted 15 scientists from such research institutes as the Smithsonian, Woods Hole, and the Monterey Bay Aquarium itself, to contribute brief but lively reports on everything from "sharks of the dark" to methane seeps and hydrothermal vents. There is a handy depth chart keyed to each image, a glossary, a page of interesting oceanic statistics, and a good bibliography. Good as the texts and aids are, the images carry the book; they are simply spectacular.

Despite the gloom where they dwell, these creatures are not just gaudy but downright lurid. Neon blues clash with blast-furnace reds, carnation pinks line up with bruised purples; some, like the Cockatoo Squid, have jaunty polka dots which not only glow but pivot to confuse predators. Others sport pastel tufts of tentacles or brick-red arms barbed with rotating white hooks. Some, like the lovely black medusa jellyfish, are virtually invisible, though certain squid have developed polarized eyes to spot better the least glint of their translucency.

In the deep, the shape of creatures becomes as exaggerated as their coloration. Immense pressure flattens, elongates, and contorts fins and eyes and mouths. As one contributor remarks, "At 4000 m depth, the pressure exerted by water on a body is equivalent to a cow standing on one's thumbnail."

The black devil anglerfish, which waits for prey at 3,500 meters down, resembles a gape made visible, with needlelike teeth beneath a teasing lure and an abbreviated body trailing after like a crumpled caboose. This is the female of the species: The tiny male spends his life dangling from her belly, only to be eventually absorbed into her tissues. By contrast, the giant siphonophore, which, at 50 meters in length is "the largest invertebrate on the planet" (and longer than the blue whale), is little more than a tube studded with phosphorescence, like a runway. So far down, oxygen is scarce. One delightful squid — unfairly labeled "Vampyroteuthis infernalis" or "vampire squid from hell" by early oceanographers — has a special blood pigment which enables it to extract oxygen at depths where it's almost unavailable. With its sapphire-blue and unusually soulful eyes fringed with petal-like fringes and its crimson skin exquisitely patterned with small white dots, the vampire squid, on the evidence of its portrait here, should file for a name-change.

The Vampire Squid appears in several portraits in Ms. Nouvian's book; it's clearly a favorite, and rightly so. But the oceanic abyss, she tells us, where the greatest concentration of the biomass is to be found, may house as many as 30 million species, most as yet unknown. Life on dry land, our life, is but a fraction of that profusion. More sobering still, the deep is a world reversed. There darkness is the norm. Light is a subterfuge, used to decoy, entrap, and camouflage. We think of light as emblematic of truth and clarity but down there it serves to deceive or lure, and every abyssal creature has evolved some luminous stratagem for survival.

The array of these extravagant creatures challenges our preconceptions. They are beautiful and yet their beauty is blobby, gelatinous, and garish. In their extremes many not only defy the principle of bilateral symmetry but caricature it. The more fearsome prompt uneasy theological considerations as well. When God answered Job out of the whirlwind, He harangued him by asking, "Hast thou entered into the springs of the sea? Or hast thou walked in the search of the depth?" It's probably just as well that Job hadn't searched the depths. An encounter with the fangtooth or the giant squid — all 18 scooting meters of it, caught in a stunning photo here — might have made him kvetch more mightily. A search of the deep could have convinced him that, as Herman Melville put it, however benign the cosmos may look, "the invisible spheres were formed in fright."

Life in the last frontier

Life in the last frontier

Scientists have discovered a beautiful and bizarre world of new species in the ocean - but already they are at risk, writes Deborah Smith.

POISONOUS carbon dioxide was rising from the sea floor like champagne bubbles. The water was hot and acidic, and it was pitch black. A more hostile environment for life to survive would be hard to imagine. Yet, when the lights of the three-person submersible in which she was travelling were switched on, the Sydney marine biologist, Dr Adele Pile, noticed flashes of red in the gloom outside the craft.

On closer inspection, they turned out to be hardy little creatures called flame-red bristle worms that had made their home in this toxic spot, 1000 metres below the surface, at the base of an active underwater volcano.

Closer to the summit of the volcano, off the coast of Samoa, hundreds of purple and blue eels were found living in rocky crevices. "Life in the deep sea is very diverse," says Pile, of the University of Sydney, who now also makes use of remotely operated vehicles for her marine research.

Soon the chance to explore this last great frontier on Earth - the deep ocean - will be open to Australian tourists, as well as other Australian scientists.

From next year, expeditions in three submersibles - the first to operate in our waters - will be run as part of a project called Deep Australia, a collaboration between marine scientists and the Australian adventure entrepreneur Mike McDowell.

There will undoubtedly be surprises ahead, says the lead researcher, Professor Justin Marshall, of the University of Queensland. "We only have a very limited idea of what really lives down in the depths around Australia."

Some clues to the kind of treasure trove that could be found, however, emerged last week. An international team of researchers studying the deep waters around Antarctica revealed they had discovered more than 700 previously unknown creatures, including carnivorous sponges, free-swimming worms, crustaceans and molluscs.

This cold, dark region had been thought to be a featureless abyss, but the opposite was true, says the team leader, Professor Angelika Brandt, from the University of Hamburg. "The Antarctic deep sea is potentially the cradle of life of global marine species," she says.

As more is learnt about the richly diverse ecosystems hidden a long way under the surface, concerns are growing for their protection from trawling and mining and pollution.

"Over the past few months, the possibility of mineral exploitation in the deep sea has moved closer to reality with the completion of the first underwater exploration for massive sulphide deposits," two north American researchers, Jochen Halfar and Rodney Fujita, warn in an article in the current issue of the journal Science.

They say underwater hot vents have been found that contain gold, copper, zinc and silver in far higher concentrations than in land deposits. Yet mining could damage their "unique and diverse ecosystems".

Regulations to minimise the environmental impact of mining are needed now, say Halfar and Fujita, before it starts. "Large capital investments and generation of revenues by underwater mining operations are likely to make regulations after onset of commercial operations even more difficult."

A former CSIRO marine scientist, Dr Tony Koslow, has written a new book, The Silent Deep, to alert the public to the threats facing life in the deep, open sea. In the mid-1990s Koslow discovered the rich diversity of life on seamounts 1000 metres underwater south of Tasmania, where fishing fleets were trawling for orange roughy.

"Before that, seamounts were viewed as not that interesting," says Koslow, who is now at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in California. But when he turned his underwater cameras onto the underwater mountain tops he got a shock. "It was a revelation. I thought, 'Oh my, they are potentially as diverse as shallow water reefs'."

With the help of other scientists he catalogued this new ecosystem. "Of the hundreds of species that we encountered, about a third were new to science, and apparently restricted to those local seamounts," he says.

When the cameras were lowered onto the seamounts that had been trawled, however, it was a different picture. "There was nothing, only coral rubble and bare rock," says Koslow. "Fishers in 25-metre boats can level a pristine coral reef at 1000 metres depth as readily as loggers with chainsaws and bulldozers can clear an old-growth forest."

Koslow's research led to the establishment of one of the world's first deepwater marine reserves, off the Tasmanian coast, and his endeavours are now focused at the international level. Three years ago he led a call for a global moratorium on bottom trawling on the high seas, which was signed by more than 1300 marine scientists.

Unfortunately, late last year, opposition by Iceland scuppered hopes that the United Nations General Assembly would back a moratorium, although the UN did call for countries and regional fisheries organisations to prevent destructive trawling in the high seas.

Despite his initial disappointment, Koslow is heartened by recent developments. This month the first agreement of its kind to protect up to 25 per cent of the high seas was signed by nations fishing in the South Pacific, the largest pristine deep-sea environment left on Earth. The agreement, which will have a big impact on the New Zealand trawl fishing industry and comes into effect in September, will close high sea areas where vulnerable marine ecosystems are known to exist or likely to occur.

"It is real progress," says Koslow, who is also working with Professor Craig Smith, of the University of Hawaii, on a Pew Fellowship project to try and establish a global network of marine protected areas that will be off limits to fishing and mining.

Initially, the miners had focused on the manganese nuggets that litter about 70 per cent of the sea floor and which contain small amounts of cobalt copper and nickel. But the environmental cost of scraping these nodules up from large areas has shifted their attention to the vents.

Huge sulphide deposits of commercial grade ore have been found within the exclusive economic zones of Papua New Guinea and New Zealand, say Halfar and Fujita. With metal prices skyrocketing and land-based metal-rich deposits depleted, sea-floor mining has been scheduled to begin in 2009.

If these operations are successful, there is likely to be a wave of interest in deep-sea mining of ore-rich vents, more than 250 of which have been found, they say.

In Australia, the oil and gas industry and scientists are working together in the deep ocean. Pile has established a partnership with companies to explore the waters around their drilling rigs in Bass Strait and the Northwest Shelf.

The companies have donated time to Pile and her team on their remotely operated vehicles, which are often sitting idle, allowing the team to reach otherwise inaccessible areas and carry out projects such as a recent one to see whether drilling was affecting the diet of organisms in the area.

It's a win-win situation, says Pile. The scientists get to set their own research agenda, but are able to provide insights into the environmental effect of the drilling. "The companies need the information so they can do the right thing."

Being able to direct the vehicle remotely, with a coffee in hand, however, is more comfortable than being in the submersible. On the eight-hour long volcano trips Pile says she had to avoid drinking because there were no toilet facilities.

From next year, adventure tourists with deep pockets will be able to enjoy the luxury of a 56-metre long vessel, the MV Alucia, that McDowell, of Deep Ocean Expeditions, had designed for marine research, before heading off for exploration in one of its three Deep Rover submersibles. The craft have cameras and mechanical arms to sample marine life and the scientists taking part in the Deep Australia project are looking forward to new discoveries.

Marshall, from the university's Vision Touch and Hearing Research Centre, is particularly interested in the sensory systems deep-sea creatures may have evolved to cope with their unusual environments. "Imagine floating through a world for an entire lifetime where it is absolutely black and you never come into contact with a surface and you have got to find food and a mate and not get eaten."

While deep-sea exploration could bring many commercial benefits leading, for example, to the development of new drugs or devices, it is the wonder of nature that inspires Marshall. "I apply my research, but my first point of call is to say, 'Look how beautiful this is'."

Monday, May 7, 2007

Biodiesel won't drive down global warming

Biodiesel won't drive down global warming

EU legislation to promote the uptake of biodiesel will not make any difference to global warming, and could potentially result in greater emissions of greenhouse gases than from conventional petroleum derived diesel. This is the conclusion of a new study reported today in Chemistry & Industry, the magazine of the SCI.

Analysts at SRI Consulting compared the emissions of greenhouse gases by the two fuels across their overall life cycles from production to combustion in cars.

The results show that biodiesel derived from rapeseed grown on dedicated farmland emits nearly the same amount of greenhouse gas emissions (defined as CO2 equivalents) per km driven as does conventional diesel.

However, if the land used to grow rapeseed was instead used to grow trees, petroleum diesel would emit only a third of the CO2 equivalent emissions as biodiesel.

Petroleum diesel emits 85% of its greenhouse gases at the final stage, when burnt in the engine. By contrast, two-thirds of the emissions produced by rapeseed derived biodiesel (RME) occur during farming of the crop, when cropland emits nitrous oxide (N2O), otherwise known as laughing gas, that is 200-300x as potent a greenhouse gas as CO2.

The results of this analysis should have big implications for policymakers. The 2003 EU Biofuels Directive aims to increase the levels of biofuels to 5.75% of all transport fuels by 2010, up from roughly 2% currently. This will be further increased to a 10% share in 2010, the Commission announced in January this year.

Transportation currently accounts for more than a fifth of all greenhouse gas emissions emitted in the EU. Rapeseed-derived biodiesel is the major renewables-derived biofuel used across Europe and, as well as helping to improve energy security, is expected to play an important role in helping to meet the EU's Kyoto commitment to reduce levels of greenhouse gas emissions by 8% by 2012 relative to 1990 levels, and by 20% by 2020.

Scientists Track Impact of Asian Dust and Pollution on Clouds, Climate Change

Scientists Track Impact of Asian Dust and Pollution on Clouds, Climate Change

Scientists using one of the nation's newest and most capable research aircraft are launching a far-reaching field project this month to study plumes of airborne dust and pollutants that originate in Asia and journey to North America.

The plumes are among the largest such events on Earth, so great in scope that scientists believe they might affect clouds and weather across thousands of miles while interacting with the Sun's radiation and playing a role in global climate.

Known as PACDEX (Pacific Dust Experiment), the project will be led by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. NCAR's main sponsor, the National Science Foundation (NSF), will provide most of the funding. The first mission will be launched in late April, depending on weather patterns in Asia. It will continue for two months.

To study the changes in the plumes as they move through the atmosphere from Japan to the western United States, the PACDEX team will deploy the NSF HIAPER, a modified Gulfstream-V aircraft, which is operated and maintained by NCAR. This newly configured plane has a range of about 6,000 miles and can cruise from just a few hundred feet above Earth's surface to over 50,000 feet. These features enable scientists to study the plumes across thousands of miles and at different levels of the atmosphere.

"Aerosol pollutants, such as those to be studied in PACDEX, account for the largest uncertainties in climate forcing," said Jay Fein, program director in NSF's Division of Atmospheric Sciences, which funded the experiment. "PACDEX is addressing this challenging and societally relevant science question."

While many particles in the plumes, such as sulfates, cool the planet by blocking solar radiation from reaching Earth, some particles such as black carbon absorb sunlight as well and therefore may amplify the effects of global warming. PACDEX will help scientists refine computer models of greenhouse gas emissions and improve forecasts of future climate change, both for the entire globe and for specific regions that are especially affected by dust and pollutants.

"PACDEX will open a window into what happens to the atmosphere as these massive plumes cross the Pacific Ocean and affect clouds, precipitation, and the amount of sunlight that reaches Earth," explains NCAR scientist Jeff Stith, a principal investigator on the project. "We want to determine how the various particles of dust and pollutants influence clouds and climate, and how far downwind those effects occur."

"PACDEX comes at a crucial time in our efforts to understand the regional impacts of global warming," says V. Ramanathan, a PACDEX principal investigator based at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. "It will also help us help us examine how the dust and soot modifies storm tracks and cloud systems across the Pacific, which influence North American weather patterns in major ways. By focusing on these plumes, PACDEX will shed light on one of the major environmental issues of this decade."

As Asia's economies boom, scientists are increasingly turning their attention to the plumes, which pack a combination of industrial emissions (such as soot, smog, and trace metals) and dust from storms in regions such as Central Asia's Gobi Desert.

The plumes can alter global temperatures by interacting with large-scale, mid-latitude cloud systems over the Pacific that reflect enormous amounts of sunlight and help regulate global climate.

The plumes also may affect regional precipitation patterns because water vapor molecules adhere to microscopic particles of dust and pollutants to form water droplets or ice particles that eventually grow and fall out of the clouds as rain or snow.

In addition, the dust and pollutants reduce the amount of light reaching Earth, contributing to a phenomenon known as global dimming that can affect both temperatures and precipitation.

The Gulfstream-V will carry an array of instruments that will enable scientists to both measure clouds and bring dust, pollutants, and cloud particles into the aircraft for study. Scientists will capture ice particles from clouds, evaporate them, study the residue, and then try to recreate the particle in a special moistened chamber to mimic the temperature and moisture conditions that enabled the original ice particle to form.

The international research team will include scientists from U.S. and Asian organizations.

U.S. organizations include NCAR, Scripps, NASA, NOAA, Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Naval Research Laboratory, Oregon State University, University of Alaska, University of Colorado, and the University of Iowa.

Asian organizations include the Japanese National Institute for Environmental Studies, Lanzhou University and Peking University in China, and Seoul National University in Korea.

Undersea vent suggests snake-headed mythology

Undersea vent suggests snake-headed mythology | Science Blog

A new "black smoker" -- an undersea mineral chimney emitting hot, iron-darkened water that attracts unusual marine life -- has been discovered at about 8,500 feet underwater by an expedition currently exploring a section of volcanic ridge along the Pacific Ocean floor off Costa Rica.

Expedition leaders from Duke University; the Universities of New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida; and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) in Massachusetts have named their discovery the Medusa hydrothermal vent field. The researchers are working aboard WHOI's research vessel Atlantis, and the expedition is funded by the National Science Foundation.

The researchers picked that name to highlight the presence of a pink form of the jellyfish order Stauromedusae as well as numerous spiky tubeworm casings that festoon the vent chimney and bring to mind "the serpent-haired Medusa of Greek myth," said expedition leader Emily Klein, a geology professor from Duke's Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences http://www.nicholas.duke.edu/ .

The bell-shaped jellyfish sighted near the vent "are really unusual, and the ones we found may be of a different species because nobody has seen types of this color before," added Karen Von Damm, an earth sciences professor and hydrothermal vent specialist on the expedition from the University of New Hampshire's Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space http://www.eos.sr.unh.edu/.

The scientists are exploring the ocean bottom with Jason II http://www.whoi.edu/marops/vehicles/jason/, a remotely controlled robotic vehicle operated by WHOI. Using Jason's mechanical arms and a temperature probe, they logged water temperatures of 335 degrees Celsius (635 degrees Fahrenheit) at the vent's opening.

"Despite the great temperature of the vent water, it doesn't boil until 390 C because pressures on the ocean floor are so great, about 200 times the pressure at sea level," Klein said. The tremendous pressures result from the weight of almost two miles of seawater pressing down from above.

"Frankly, it's astonishing that a rich ecology thrives in these extreme environments," Klein added. She noted, however, that while all the organisms near vents are adapted to the high pressures at these depths, not all experience extremely high temperatures.

"The temperature of the ocean floor is about 2 C (35 F) and there is a strong temperature gradient as you move away from the vent, so animals living a few inches away may experience temperatures only a few degrees above normal for the ocean floor."

Von Damm said that the heat-tolerant tubeworms found living on Medusa's chimneys, a type known as Alvinellids, are commonplace on vents in the equatorial Pacific and thrive on high-iron fluids.

According to the expedition's website, http://www.nicholas.duke.edu/OSCexpedition/, Jason has also retrieved two other types of tubeworms -- Tevnia and Riftia -- from the vent area for expedition scientists and graduate students to examine and preserve.

The researchers aboard Atlantis are on the scene principally to study the geology of a complex section of the East Pacific Rise, one of the "mid-ocean ridge" systems where new crust is made as the earth spreads and releases molten lava.

According to Von Damm, scientists often have found mid-ocean ridges wherever there are geothermal vents warmed by heat energy from the underlying volcanic conduits. "Each new vent sighting sparks fresh excitement, because each one is different," she said.

"Every vent has a little different chemistry, and that helps us understand the processes going on in the ocean crust," she said. "Each one gives us a different piece of the puzzle. And biologists have found more than 500 new species at vents since they were first discovered."

The Medusa vent was discovered on Easter Sunday morning, right after the scientists aboard Atlantis had completed an Easter egg hunt. Scott White, a geology professor from the University of South Carolina, had just come on duty as the watch leader when Jason II found an area rich in the types of organisms typically found near vents.

"We all knew it would be special when we found all the creatures living there after looking at relatively barren lava flows for several days," White said. He diverted the robot to investigate the animals more closely and "within seconds there was a spire of a hydrothermal chimney looming out of the darkness at the edge of Jason's camera lights," he added.

Vent specialist Von Damm had just begun the watch shift when the first black smoker image appeared on a video screen in the Jason II control room. Since Jason's video output is also piped to screens elsewhere around Atlantis, Klein saw it at about the same time.

"Suddenly everybody came running from all over the ship to see what was going on," Von Damm recalled. "I was smiling a lot. I was very happy."

"I jumped out of my chair and went running up a deck to see it in person," added Duke's Klein. "I have been going to sea for 20 years and have been hoping to find my first hydrothermal vent site, and finally I have.

"And I'm ecstatic."

Climate catastrophes in the Solar System

Climate catastrophes in the Solar System

Earth sits between two worlds that have been devastated by climate catastrophes. In the effort to combat global warming, our neighbours can provide valuable insights into the way climate catastrophes affect planets.

Modelling Earth's climate to predict its future has assumed tremendous importance in the light of mankind's influence on the atmosphere. The climate of our two neighbours is in stark contrast to that of our home planet, making data from ESA's Venus Express and Mars Express invaluable to climate scientists.

Venus is a cloudy inferno whilst Mars is a frigid desert. As current concerns about global warming have now achieved widespread acceptance, pressure has increased on scientists to propose solutions.

The key weapon in a climate scientist's arsenal is the climate model, a computer programme that uses the equations of physics to investigate the way in which Earth's atmosphere works. The programme helps predict how the atmosphere might change in the future.

"To members of the public it must seem like climate models are crystal balls, but they are actually just complex equations" says David Grinspoon, Denver Museum of Nature and Science, and one of Venus Express's interdisciplinary scientists.

The more scientists look at those equations, the more they realise just how complicated Earth's climate system is. Grinspoon puts the predicament like this: "In fifty or a hundred years, we will know whether today's climate models were right but if they are wrong, by then it will be too late."

To help increase confidence in the computer models, Grinspoon believes that scientists should look at our neighbouring planets. "It seems that both Mars and Venus started out much more like Earth and then changed. They both hold priceless climate information for Earth," says Grinspoon.

The atmosphere of Venus is much thicker than Earth's. Nevertheless, current climate models can reproduce its present temperature structure well. Now planetary scientists want to turn the clock back to understand why and how Venus changed from its former Earth-like conditions into the inferno of today.

They believe that the planet experienced a runaway greenhouse effect as the Sun gradually heated up. Astronomers believe that the young Sun was dimmer than the present-day Sun by 30 percent. Over the last 4 thousand million years, it has gradually brightened. During this increase, Venus's surface water evaporated and entered the atmosphere.

"Water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas and it caused the planet to heat-up even more. This is turn caused more water to evaporate and led to a powerful positive feedback response known as the runaway greenhouse effect," says Grinspoon.

As Earth warms in response to manmade pollution, it risks the same fate. Reconstructing the climate of the past on Venus can give scientists a better understanding of how close our planet is to such a catastrophe. However, determining when Venus passed the point of no return is not easy. That's where ESA's Venus Express comes in.

The spacecraft is in orbit around Venus collecting data that will help unlock the planet's past. Venus is losing gas from its atmosphere, so Venus Express is measuring the rate of this loss and the composition of the gas being lost. It also watches the movement of clouds in the planet's atmosphere. This reveals the way Venus responds to the absorption of sunlight, because the energy from the Sun provides the power that allows the atmosphere to move.

In addition, Venus Express is charting the amount and location of sulphur dioxide in the planet's atmosphere. Sulphur dioxide is a greenhouse gas and is released by volcanoes on Venus.

"Understanding all of this will help us pin down when Venus lost its water," says Grinspoon. That knowledge can feed into the interpretation of climate models on the Earth because although both planets seem very different now, the same laws of physics govern both worlds.

Understanding Mars' past is equally important. ESA's Mars Express is currently investigating the fate of the Red Planet. Smaller than the Earth, Mars is thought to have lost its atmosphere to space. When Martian volcanoes became extinct, so did the planet's means of replenishing its atmosphere turning it into an almost-airless desert.

"What happened on these two worlds is very different but either would be equally disastrous for Earth. We are banking on our ability to accurately predict Earth's future climate," says Grinspoon. Anything that can shed light on our own future is valuable. That is why the study of our neighbouring worlds is vital.

So, when planetary scientists talk of exploring other worlds, they are also increasing their ability to understand our own planet.

Fish oil may help kidney disease sufferers

Fish oil may help kidney disease sufferers

Fish oil, it's been touted as an answer to Alzheimers, arthritis and even weight-loss but now a Queensland University of Technology researcher will test its health benefits in people with chronic kidney disease.

Dietitian Rachel Zabel, from QUT's Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, will investigate the effects of fish oil on patients with kidney disease undergoing dialysis.

Ms Zabel said daily doses of fish oil in the form of a tablet or liquid had been shown to decrease inflammation - a common problem in people with kidney disease.

"Research shows that patients with kidney disease on dialysis experience a range of complications thought to relate to chronic inflammation," she said.

"They can have poor nutritional status, disturbed appetite and a lower quality of life."

Ms Zabel said fish oils had known anti-inflammatory properties due to their high concentration of Eicosapentaenoic Acid (EPA).

"EPA has been used successfully in other population groups with chronic inflammation including people with osteoarthritis and cancer cachexia, however the anti-inflammatory effects have not yet been applied to patients on dialysis," she said.

As part of Ms Zabel's study, participants will be given a daily dose of fish oil, and tests will be conducted to measure changes in inflammation and appetite.

The 12-week study will seek to determine the success of fish oil as a treatment option for inflammation in people with chronic kidney disease.

Ms Zabel said, with one in three people in Australia at risk of developing chronic kidney disease, improving the quality of life for sufferers was essential.

"The incidence of chronic kidney disease is increasing," she said.

"One in seven people over the age of 25 have at least one clinical sign of chronic kidney disease and every day five Australians commence dialysis or transplantation to stay alive.

"While fish oil won't cure kidney disease, it may provide a better quality of life for sufferers."

The study is being conducted in collaboration with the Wesley Hospital.

Ice Retreating Faster Than Computer Models Project

Ice Retreating Faster Than Computer Models Project

Arctic sea ice is melting at a significantly faster rate than projected by even the most advanced computer models, a new study concludes. The research, by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the University of Colorado's National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), shows that the Arctic's ice cover is retreating more rapidly than estimated by any of the 18 computer models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in preparing its 2007 assessments.

The study, "Arctic Sea Ice Decline: Faster Than Forecast?" will appear tomorrow in the online edition of Geophysical Research Letters. It was led by Julienne Stroeve of the NSIDC and funded by the National Science Foundation, which is NCAR's principal sponsor, and by NASA.

"While the ice is disappearing faster than the computer models indicate, both observations and the models point in the same direction: the Arctic is losing ice at an increasingly rapid pace and the impact of greenhouse gases is growing," says NCAR scientist Marika Holland, one of the study's co-authors.

The authors compared model simulations of past climate with observations by satellites and other instruments. They found that, on average, the models simulated a loss in September ice cover of 2.5 percent per decade from 1953 to 2006. The fastest rate of September retreat in any individual model was 5.4 percent per decade. (September marks the yearly minimum of sea ice in the Arctic.) But newly available data sets, blending early aircraft and ship reports with more recent satellite measurements that are considered more reliable than the earlier records, show that the September ice actually declined at a rate of about 7.8 percent per decade during the 1953-2006 period.

"This suggests that current model projections may in fact provide a conservative estimate of future Arctic change, and that the summer Arctic sea ice may disappear considerably earlier than IPCC projections," says Stroeve.

Thirty years ahead of schedule

The study indicates that, because of the disparity between the computer models and actual observations, the shrinking of summertime ice is about 30 years ahead of the climate model projections. As a result, the Arctic could be seasonally free of sea ice earlier than the IPCC- projected timeframe of any time from 2050 to well beyond 2100.

The authors speculate that the computer models may fail to capture the full impact of increased carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Whereas the models indicate that about half of the ice loss from 1979 to 2006 was due to increased greenhouse gases, and the other half due to natural variations in the climate system, the new study indicates that greenhouse gases may be playing a significantly greater role.

There are a number of factors that may lead to the low rates of simulated sea ice loss. Several models overestimate the thickness of the present-day sea ice and the models may also fail to fully capture changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation that transport heat to polar regions.

March ice

Although the loss of ice for March is far less dramatic than the September loss, the models underestimate it by a wide margin as well. The study concludes that the actual rate of sea ice loss in March, which averaged about 1.8 percent per decade in the 1953 -2006 period, was three times larger than the mean from the computer models. March is typically the month when Arctic sea ice is at its most extensive.

The Arctic is especially sensitive to climate change partly because regions of sea ice, which reflect sunlight back into space and provide a cooling impact, are disappearing. In contrast, darker areas of open water, which are expanding, absorb sunlight and increase temperatures. This feedback loop has played a role in the increasingly rapid loss of ice in recent years, which accelerated to 9.1 percent per decade from 1979 to 2006 according to satellite observations.

Walt Meier, Ted Scambos, and Mark Serreze, all at NSIDC, also co-authored the study.

NCAR